梯级水光互补联合发电系统运行安全分析方法及应用

Operation Safety Analysis Method for Cascaded Hydro-photovoltaic Complementary Generation System and Its Application

摘要:

以水电为纽带的多能互补发电已成为提升清洁能源消纳水平的重要手段。梯级水光互补联合发电系统受光伏出力的强随机性和间歇性影响，极大地限制了互补系统的安全稳定运行。本文围绕梯级水光互补联合发电系统运行安全分析的实际工程问题，从互补系统的发电计划安全校核和安全运行区间分析两个角度，提出了基于多项式混沌理论的概率配点算法的运行安全分析方法并研发了相应软件。该方案可有效应对随机性影响下大规模场景抽样带来的求解效率问题，能够在保证计算精确性的前提下，显著提高求解效率，为互补系统的安全稳定运行提供了技术支持

Abstract:

Multi-energy complementary power generation system linked with hydropower has become an important means to enhance clean energy consumption. The cascade hydro-photovoltaic complementary generation system is affected by the strong randomness and intermittently of photovoltaic output, which greatly limits the safe and stable operation of the complementary system. In this paper, focusing on the practical engineering problem of operation safety analysis for cascade hydro-photovoltaic complementary generation system, an operation safety analysis method of probabilistic collocation point algorithm based on polynomial chaos theory is proposed and the corresponding software is developed. The analysis method is carried out from two perspectives: one is the power generation plan safety check, and the other is the safe operation interval analysis. The application shows that the proposed analysis method can effectively deal with the solving efficiency problem brought by large-scale scene sampling with randomness, and can significantly improve the solving efficiency under the premise of ensuring calculation accuracy, which providing technical support for the safe and stable operation of the complementary system.