基于多因子考虑的地区电网电采暖负荷预测分析

Load Forecasting and Analysis of Electric Heating of Regional Power Grid Based on Multi-factor Consideration

摘要:

冬季电采暖可以有效促进新能源的消纳，减少弃风、弃光现象。然而大规模电采暖设备产生的谐波会影响电网质量，因此有必要对电采暖负荷进行分析及预测，以利于电网调度及安全运行，缓解电力系统负荷调峰和调频压力。为预测电采暖负荷，本文以某地区电采暖实际负荷为例，分析了影响电采暖负荷变动的的四个因子：稳定负荷因子，气象敏感因子，随机负荷因子，日期类型因子。得出电采暖负荷变动主要影响因子为日期类型因子和气象敏感因子。因此，建立考虑日期类型，分别基于平均温度和基于人体舒适度的最小二乘法拟合预测模型。预测结果表明，两种模型都获得了较高的预测精度，都可以用于地区负荷预测。

Abstract:

Electric heating in winter can effectively promote the consumption of new energy and reduce wind and solar abandonment. However, the harmonics generated by large-scale electric heating equipment will affect the quality of the power grid. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and predict the electric heating load in order to facilitate grid dispatch and safe operation, and relieve the load peak and frequency regulation pressure of the power system. In order to predict the electric heating load, this paper takes the actual electric heating load in a certain area as an example, and analyzes the four factors that affect the change of the electric heating load: stable load factor, weather sensitive factor, random load factor, date type factor. Finally, it is concluded that the main influencing factors of electric heating load changes are date type factors and weather sensitive factors. Therefore, this paper establishes a prediction model that considers the date type, and is based on the average temperature and the least squares method of human comfort. The prediction results show that both models have obtained high prediction accuracy, and both can be used for regional load forecasting.