大规模虚拟储能模式平抑新能源功率预测误差研究

Research on Large-scale Virtual Energy Storage Mode for Stabilizing New Energy Power Prediction Error

摘要:

新能源预测误差使系统调节能力不足导致新能源限电。为提高新能源消纳，结合自备电厂虚拟储能特点，提出大规模虚拟储能平抑新能源功率预测误差优化调度方法。首先分析新能源功率预测误差分布特点，然后将新能源预测功率按照一定置信度纳入发电计划，进而建立大规模虚拟储能平抑新能源功率预测误差调度模型。通过某地区实际数据验证所提模型经济性和有效性，并针对关键因素灵敏度分析验证该模型有效性。

Abstract:

New energy prediction errors cause system insufficient regulation, resulting in new energy abandonment. To improve the new energy consumption, considering the prediction error of new energy, combined with the characteristics of virtual energy storage of self-owned power plants, a large-scale virtual energy storage and an optimal dispatch method for stabling the prediction error of new energy power are proposed. First analyze the distribution characteristics of new energy power prediction errors, and then incorporate the new energy prediction power into the power generation plan according to a certain degree of confidence, and then establish a large-scale virtual energy storage to suppress the new energy power prediction error dispatch model. Verify the economics and effectiveness of the proposed model through actual data examples in a certain area.