计及风电不确定性的风-水短期联合优化调度方法

Short-term Optimal Scheduling Method for Combined Operation of Wind power and Hydropower Considering Uncertainty of Wind Power

摘要:

针对风电并网带来的出力随机性和波动性问题,提出了一种计及风电不确定性的风-水短期联合优化调度方法。首先,以地区风电群为整体,考虑风电出力不确定性导致的预测值与实际值间的偏差,采用模糊聚类方法对风电预测值与实际值进行二次聚类,构建预测值与对应的实际值间的出力情景集合及条件概率分布,将风电不确定性转变为有限个确定的条件情景进行描述;继而,建立多情景风电与水电站群联合调峰调度模型,结合当前风电预测值对应的实际情景及其概率分布,采用基于逐次逼近和关联搜索的水电站群短期优化调度方法进行求解;最后,以西南某地区为例,验证所提方法应用效果。

Abstract:

Aiming at the output randomness and fluctuation brought by wind power integration,a short-term optimal scheduling method for combined operation of wind power and hydropower is proposed. The uncertainty of wind power is considered in this method. Firstly,the scenario analysis method is adopted to describe the uncertainty of wind power output,which constructs the corresponding relationship between wind power prediction scenarios and practical scenarios through a two-step fuzzy clustering method. Then,the conditional probability distribution between prediction scenarios and practical scenarios can be determined. And,the uncertainty of wind power can be described by the determined set of scenarios and its probability distribution. Finally,combined with the wind power scenarios,an optimal scheduling model with peak regulation as the optimization objective for combined operation of wind power and hydropower is established. A association search method combined with successive approximation method is used to solve the proposed model. Taking a region in Southwest China for example,the application effect of the proposed method is verified.