基于大数据与计量回归分析的四川终端能源竞争态势研究

Ｒesearch on Competitive Situation of Terminal Energy in Sichuan Province Based on Big Data Analysis and Ｒegression Analysis

摘要:

比较研究了电力与石油( 汽柴油) 、天然气在新能源汽车、分布式能源系统等终端能源之间的竞争态势，并基 于大数据关联分析及计量模型回归分析等方法，对竞争关系进行了实证，得出如下结论: 天然气基础设施相对薄弱， 短期难以对电力能源构成明显威胁，随着政策利好以及技术突破，长期将在冷热电分布式能源、城市燃气和压缩天然 气车等终端消费市场上成为电力公司的一个有力竞争对手; 短期内石油终端消费表现出下行的态势，但传统油企积 极向综合能源公司转型，给电力企业带来新的竞争压力; 新能源汽车产业发展短期受制约，长期市场前景较好，有利 于推进“以电代油”进程; 分布式风光发电项目对公司短期影响有限。对电力公司而言，可以通过抢占增量市场、转型 综合能源服务等方面进行应对。

关键词:终端能源; 竞争态势; 电力

Abstract:

The competition situation between electric power，petroleum and natural gas in new energy vehicle and distributed energy system is compared． And empirically studies are carried out based on big data analysis and regression analysis． The obtained conclusions are as follows: Due to the relatively weak infrastructure，it is difficult for natural gas to pose a significant threat to power energy in the short term，but in the long run，natural gas would become a powerful competitor． Oil companies are actively transforming into integrated energy companies，they would bring new competitive pressures to power enterprises． The new energy vehicle industry is constrained in the short term，but it had a good long － term market prospect，which is conducive to promoting the process of replacing oil with electricity． The distributed energy has a limited impact on electric power． For power companies， the following strategies are available: developing the incremental market and turning to integrated energy services．

Key words:terminal energy; competition situation; electric power