地震条件下计及杆塔结构可靠度的电网可靠性评估研究

Research on Reliability Evaluation of Power Grid Considering Structural Reliability of Tower under Seismic Conditions

摘要:

地震会对电网造成破坏性影响，目前对于地震条件下电网可靠性评估主要进行抗震性能的分析，所得近似分 析结果满足不了实际需要。在对地震条件下电网可靠性评估中考虑了输电杆塔结构可靠度与地震的传播性，采用有 限元仿真手段直接分析了输电杆塔的结构问题; 利用杆塔结构可靠度来计算输电线路故障率，在得到输电线路可靠 性数据后评估了各个地震烈度下电力系统的可靠性; 最后计及地震的传播性评估了电网的综合可靠性。地震条件下 计及杆塔结构可靠度的电网可靠性评估模型可用于地震条件下电网薄弱环节的预警，为改善电力系统抗震性能提供 参考。 关键词: 地震; 有限元分析; 杆塔结构可靠度; 蒙特卡洛; 电力系统可靠性

Abstract:

Abstract: Earthquakes can have devastating effects on power grid． At present，the approximate analysis of seismic performance is the main method to evaluate the reliability of power grid under seismic condition，but the approximate analysis results can not meet the actual needs． So，the reliability of transmission towers and the propagation of earthquakes are considered in the reliability evaluation of power grids under seismic condition． The finite element simulation method is used to directly analyze the structural problems of the tower． The reliability of transmission line is calculated by using the tower reliability． After obtaining the reliability data，the reliability of power system under each seismic strength is evaluated． Finally，the propagation of earthquake is considered． The overall reliability of power system is evaluated． The reliability evaluation results of grid reliability under seismic condition can be used to identify the vulnerable links of power system and provide a reference for improving the seismic performance of power system．