输电线路超短期覆冰厚度精准预测模型研究

Ｒesearch on Accurate Prediction Model for Icing Thickness of Transmission Lines in Ultra － short Period

摘要:

冬季架空输电线路覆冰是导致输电线路发生冰雪灾害的直接原因，在线实时融冰是预防冰雪灾害的有效措 施。对于冻雨致冰厚度的精准预测，是实施最优融冰方案的前提。设计了模拟导线监测系统和现场微气象系统，以模拟 导线监测数据和微气象站技术，结合冻雨覆冰理论计算空气中前期液态水含量。基于灰色系统理论，应用 GM( 1，1) 模 型，预测空气中超短期液态水含量、风速、降雨量。在此基础上，根据所预测液态水含量、风速、降雨量计算覆冰增长速 度。综合多种实际监测数据，建立覆冰数据仿真模型。

关键词:实时融冰; 输电线路; 精准预测模型; 冻雨致冰; 灰色系统理论

Abstract:

The icing on transmission lines is the key issue to cause snow and ice disasters during the winter． The on － line real － time ice － melting technology is an effective measure to relieve the snow and ice disasters． The accurate prediction of icing thickness on transmission lines due to freezing rain is the precondition of deciding the optimal ice － melting scheme． The simulated wire monitoring system and the on － site micrometeorology system are designed to simulate the conductor monitoring data and microweather station，and calculate the water content in the air according to the icing theory due to freezing rain． Based on grey system theory，GM( 1，1) model is applied to predict the water content，wind speed and rainfall in the air． The icing growth rate is figured out based on the predicted liquid water content，wind speed and rainfall． The simulation model of icing data is established by combining various actual monitoring data．

Key words:real － time ice － melting; transmission line; accurate prediction model; ice due to freezing rain; grey system theory