电力负荷预测研究综述及预测分析

Overview of Electrical Load Forecasting Ｒesearches and Forecasting Analysis

摘要:

电力系统负荷预测研究对于用电形势分析、用电规划、合理部署人力、物力资源以及经济有效地管理电力系 统都具有重要的意义。分析了电力负荷研究现状，较系统地总结了电力负荷预测的特点、步骤及其常用预测方法，并 从多个角度对不同预测方法的特点进行比较分析，进而对四川省用电负荷预测及中国用电形势进行预测分析，为电 力负荷预测研究提出富有针对性的建议。

Abstract:

The researches on load forecasting of power system are of great significance to the electricity consumption analysis， electricity planning，rational arrangement of manpower and material resources，economical and effective management of power system． Firstly the background and current situation of electrical load research are analyzed，and the characteristics and procedures of electrical load forecasting and its common prediction methods are systematically summarized． And then from different point of view the characteristics of different prediction methods are analyzed and compared，moreover the electrical load forecasting in Sichuan province and the national electricity consumption situation are analyzed． Furthermore，the corresponding opinions and suggestions are put forward for the researches of electrical load forecasting．