基于短期负荷预测含分布式发电配电网状态估计

Distribution State Estimation Including Distributed Generation Based on Short-term Load Forecasting

摘要:

提出一种基于短期负荷预测的含分布式发电( distributed generations，DG) 的配电网状态估计( distribution state estimation，DSE) 方法。先采用基于粒子群优化的最小二乘支持向量机方法实现电力系统短期负荷预测，为配电网提 供更为准确的伪量测，进而解决DSE 可观测性问题; 然后，考虑到配电网中的一些设备如电压调节器、分布式发电机 等的非线性、离散性特性，将含DG 的DSE 作为一个整形非线性、含多约束条件的优化问题，采用具有很强全局寻优能 力和良好收敛特性的自适应差分进化算法解决DSE 问题。含DG 的IEEE 33 节点测试系统仿真结果验证了所提方法 的可行性，与文献中优化算法对比结果进一步突出了所提算法的有效性。

Abstract:

A distribution state estimation ( DSE) method including distributed generation ( DG) based on short － term load forecasting is proposed． In this method，the short － term load forecasting technique based on particle swarm optimization － least squares support vector machine is used to provide accurate pseudo － measurements and further to solve the observability issue of DSE． Considering the nonlinear characteristics of a few equipments in distribution network such as voltage regulators and distributed generators，the DSE including DG is considered as an optimization problem，which is solved by applying a self － adaptive differential evolution algorithm． The simulation results on the IEEE 33 － bus test system with DG show the feasibility of the presented method and the comparative results with other optimization algorithms verify the effectiveness of the proposed method．