四川电网负荷特性分析预测

摘要:

通过对四川电网电力负荷历史数据的分析，包括负荷发展水平、用电结构、年负荷特性、冬夏典型日负荷特性， 总结出四川电网负荷特性的特点，同时对负荷特性预测方法进行了研究综述，提出采用趋势法和“重近轻远”加权平 均法预测四川电网2015 年负荷特性。结果表明给出的负荷特性值有较高的可信度，在很大程度上反映出四川负荷特 性未来的发展趋势和特点，将为四川电网规划及生产经营等计划工作提供有力的依据。

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of power load data in Sichuan power grid，including the load development，structure of electricity loads，annual load characteristic and typical daily load characteristics in summer and winter，the features of load characteristics in Sichuan power grid are summarized，while the prediction methods of load characteristics are studied． The trend method and " heavy light near far" weighted average method are proposed to forecast the load characteristics of 2015 in Sichuan power grid． The results show that the obtained load characteristics are of high credibility，and reflect the future developing trends and features of the load characteristics to a great extent，which will provide a strong basis for the grid planning，production and marketing planning in Sichuan power grid．